3.3¢
−1.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.3%
$2.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle and accepts that nomination. Resolution relies directly on official Democratic Party sources, including their primary website. An explicit clause clarifies that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the initial resolution outcome, leaving minimal room for ambiguity or decider discretion.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The price fell from 16% to 5%, but available news reports provide no clear catalyst directly explaining the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
The market price rose from 3% to 16%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a clear catalyst for the move.
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
The price rose from 3% to 16%, but available news reports and market data show no clear catalyst for the move.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Raphael Warnock will be the Democratic Party's vice-presidential nominee for the 2028 United States presidential election.
The market resolves Yes if Raphael Warnock is the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first to be formally nominated and accept the vice-presidential nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day does not alter the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.