Will Kamala Harris be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
1.75¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.75%
$859 total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly define the outcome based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party in the 2028 cycle and accepts that nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, primarily their official website, leaving very little room for ambiguity or subjective interpretation. The rules also explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee after the initial formal nomination will not alter the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kamala Harris will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States. Resolution fixes strictly on the first person to formally accept the nomination, meaning any subsequent replacements before election day are disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kamala Harris is the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves to No if another person is the first individual to be formally nominated and accepts the nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day does not change the resolution. The outcome is decided by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including the party's official website.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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