Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Last captured price
42.9¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 42.9%
$564.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, and provide a clear long-term expiration date. However, the price resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or price index, leaving room for interpretation regarding which trading venue qualifies and how token supply is verified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $1 billion one day after its launch. The market has a specific deadline for the token launch to occur.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. For a launch to count, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $1 billion at the specified time. The market also resolves No if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline:
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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