Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Last captured price
70¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 70%
$362.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules establish a clear formula for fully diluted valuation and define the exact evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, no specific exchange or data provider is named; resolution relies on whatever is judged to be the most liquid price source available at the checkpoint. Prices and reported total token supplies can vary across liquidity pools and market trackers during initial trading, which introduces decider judgment. If a token is not publicly tradable by December 31, 2027, the market automatically resolves to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $600 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it launches.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $600 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched, with FDV calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $600 million at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Token pricing is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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