Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves based on token valuation at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, but it designates the resolution source as the most liquid price source available rather than specifying a particular exchange, aggregator, or liquidity measure like trading volume versus order book depth. Because newly launched tokens often experience sharp price divergence across different decentralised pools and centralised exchanges, selecting which venue counts as most liquid gives the decider meaningful latitude. Additionally, the exact method for verifying total token supply is not pinned to a specific smart contract or documentation source. If no token launches before the December 31, 2027 cutoff, the market defaults to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $500 million exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $500 million at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — If no token launches by this date, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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