Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
13 live outcomes · highest priced: Delcy Rodríguez at 97% · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $446.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will hold effective executive power as the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Markets evaluate individual candidates as well as an outcome for no individual exercising effective governing control.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains one market per potential leader along with a 'No Head of State' option. Because the rules state resolution goes to the single individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control, or to 'No Head of State' if no one does, at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. 'De facto holds' requires exercising primary executive authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decisions, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. If multiple individuals claim leadership, it resolves to the one with primary governing control. If no one exercises effective control, it resolves to 'No Head of State'. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation deadline: — Assessed at 12:00 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 97% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Edmundo González | 2% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| Marco Rubio | 2% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| María Corina Machado | 1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| No Head of State | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Nicolás Maduro | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Richard Grenell | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Donald Trump | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Dan Caine | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | ±0 | Med | Low |