Will Dan Caine be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves based on who holds effective executive authority in Venezuela at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET).
Read the full assessment
This market resolves based on who holds effective executive authority in Venezuela at an exact date and time (December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET). While the rules provide a detailed list of indicators for de facto leadership—such as control over the armed forces, executive ministries, and core infrastructure—evaluating whether these thresholds are met in a contested power transition inherently relies on qualitative judgment. Resolution does not use an official government registry or formal international recognition, relying instead on a consensus of credible reporting. In an unstable or fractured political environment where multiple factions claim control, judging which individual meets the criteria will depend heavily on how reporting is interpreted by the resolving party.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dan Caine is the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Resolution depends on who exercises primary executive authority and domestic governing control regardless of constitutional title, formal appointment, or foreign recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dan Caine de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This requires exercising primary executive authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, core executive decision-making, and territory, regardless of formal titles or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without authority, or expired service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority. The market resolves to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·