Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining who holds de facto power rather than official constitutional title or international recognition. While the rules list specific qualitative indicators such as control over armed forces, ministries, and core infrastructure, assessing these conditions in a disputed or transitional political environment involves subjective interpretation. Furthermore, resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official registry or legal source, giving significant interpretive latitude to whoever evaluates the news consensus at the snapshot time of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
97%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Delcy Rodríguez exercises de facto executive control as the head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, regardless of formal titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. This requires exercising primary executive authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, core executive decision-making, and territory, irrespective of formal appointment, UN recognition, or international recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, and expired prior service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another individual holds de facto power. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, the market resolves to "No Head of State". Resolution will be decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·