Will Donald Trump be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: Resolution relies on determining who exercises de facto primary executive authority and effective control over Venezuela's state institutions and armed forces on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
Resolution relies on determining who exercises de facto primary executive authority and effective control over Venezuela's state institutions and armed forces on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. No official governmental agency, registry, or specific designated authority is named to decide the outcome. Instead, resolution depends entirely on an adjudicator evaluating a consensus of credible media reporting against a non-exhaustive list of qualitative indicators, such as control over security services and state infrastructure. In contested, unstable, or indirect governance scenarios, interpreting whether an external figure or domestic official meets these subjective standards creates significant decider latitude.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump will be the de facto head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, determined by practical control rather than official title or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. De facto authority requires primary executive authority, including control over armed forces, national institutions, and core decision-making, regardless of formal appointment or foreign recognition. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, or expired service do not qualify. The market resolves to No if Donald Trump is not the individual exercising this primary control. If no individual exercises effective governing control, the market resolves to No Head of State. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·