Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market evaluates political control at a precise snapshot date and time: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Read the full assessment
This market evaluates political control at a precise snapshot date and time: December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. While the rules outline several concrete indicators of de facto governance—such as control over the armed forces, ministries, and state infrastructure—determining whether someone exercises primary executive authority in a contested political environment involves subjective judgment. No official entity, government gazette, or specific news organization serves as the definitive source; instead, resolution relies on the decider evaluating a consensus of credible reporting. If power is fragmented or disputed among rival factions at the deadline, interpreting whether any single figure meets the threshold for effective control could be contentious.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether María Corina Machado exercises primary de facto executive authority as Venezuela's head of state at the end of 2026, regardless of constitutional titles or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Holding de facto authority requires exercising primary executive authority, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making. The market resolves to No if another individual holds this de facto authority. The market resolves to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and nominations without effective authority do not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting assessing effective governing authority.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·