Will Dinorah Figuera be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market evaluates effective domestic executive control at a precise moment on December 31, 2026, explicitly excluding purely symbolic authority, foreign recognition, or claims in exile without territorial control.
Read the full assessment
This market evaluates effective domestic executive control at a precise moment on December 31, 2026, explicitly excluding purely symbolic authority, foreign recognition, or claims in exile without territorial control. Resolution depends on a decider interpreting a consensus of credible news reporting against a set of qualitative criteria, such as control over armed forces, state institutions, and core infrastructure. While these indicators are laid out in detail, determining who holds primary authority could require substantial subjective judgment if Venezuela faces fragmented control, disputed authority, or rapid political transitions at the target date.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dinorah Figuera is the de facto head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026. Resolution depends purely on effective governing authority and domestic control rather than formal constitutional title, symbolic status, or international recognition.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dinorah Figuera de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This requires exercising primary executive authority, including control over armed forces, executive ministries, state administrative institutions, and core state infrastructure, regardless of formal appointment or foreign recognition. The market resolves to No if another individual exercises primary governing control, or to "No Head of State" if no individual exercises effective governing control. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, and expired prior service do not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting decides.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·