Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
11 live outcomes · highest priced: ≤47 at 40% · $3.2M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the total number of U.S. Senate seats held by the Republican Party following the 2026 midterm elections. Individual markets measure mutually exclusive seat totals or ranges for representation in the 120th Congress.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive seat counts and ranges (ranging from ≤47 to 57+). Because the Republican Party can only hold one total seat count under the defined calculation rules, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves Yes if the final Republican Senate seat count matches its specific number or range, and No otherwise. The count includes regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026 determining representation in the 120th Congress, including later runoffs. Contested seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, while uncontested seats follow the party holding them on election day. Independents are included if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus with Republicans by January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year.
Key dates
- Election schedule baseline: — Date by which elections and special elections must be scheduled.
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 United States midterm election.
- Independent caucus deadline: January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year for independent caucus announcements.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤47 | 40% | ±0 | Low | High | — |
| 48 | 17% | ±0 | Low | High | — |
| 49 | 13% | ±0 | Low | High | — |
| 50 | 13% | ±0 | Low | High | — |
| 51 | 9% | ±0 | Low | Med | — |
| 52 | 7% | ±0 | Low | Med | — |
| 53 | 5% | ▲ 1 | Low | Med | — |
| 54 | 3% | ±0 | Low | Med | — |
| 55 | 2% | ±0 | Low | Med | — |
| 56 | 1% | ±0 | Low | High | — |
| 57+ | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | — |