Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
40.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$297.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide thorough and explicit instructions for calculating the seat count, covering contested races, uncontested seats, vacancies, party switching, and potential runoff elections. Independents are accounted for based on formal caucusing announcements, with a clear fallback deadline of January 4 following the election if decisions remain unannounced. Resolution relies primarily on official data from state electoral authorities and the United States Congress alongside reporting consensus, leaving very little room for decider discretion or interpretation disputes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will hold 47 or fewer seats in the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections, including specific rules for vacant seats, runoffs, party switches, and independent caucusing.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds 47 or fewer U.S. Senate seats as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if the Republican Party holds 48 or more seats. Regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026, plus any subsequent runoffs, count toward the total. Contested seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, ignoring post-election party switches or vacancies before Congress organizes. Non-contested seats reflect the party holding them on election day. Vacancies with no scheduled election are credited to the party of the most recent occupant. Independents who formally caucus or announce an intent to caucus with Republicans count toward the Republican total, provided an announcement is made by January 4, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Qualifying election schedule cutoff: — Date as of which elections must be scheduled for November 2026 to count.
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for newly elected independents to announce caucus intent.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.