Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
0.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$153.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the Senate seat count will be calculated, addressing potential edge cases such as runoffs, vacancies, post-election party switches, and independent members caucusing with Republicans. Resolution relies on official state election authorities, Congress, and credible reporting. Because election certification, potential post-November runoffs, or independent caucus decisions may take time, final resolution could be delayed until early January following the election.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure at least 57 seats in the U.S. Senate following the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution uniquely attributes seats based on election-day status, includes independents caucusing with Republicans, and accounts for post-November runoffs.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds 57 or more seats in the U.S. Senate for the 120th Congress based on the 2026 midterm elections. Contested seats count based on the party label under which members were elected, even if they later switch parties or vacate the seat. Non-contested seats count based on party affiliation as of election day. Vacant seats with no scheduled election count toward the party of the most recent holder. Independents who caucus or announce their intent to caucus with Republicans are included. The market resolves No if the Republican seat count is 56 or fewer. Resolution is decided using official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Schedule determination date: — Date by which regular or special elections must be scheduled to be included.
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- Independent caucus deadline: — Deadline for independent senators-elect to announce caucus intent to be counted.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
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