Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
1.5¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$452K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules provide comprehensive and explicit criteria for counting Senate seats, detailing how contested races, uncontested seats, vacancies, runoffs, party switches, and independent caucuses are handled. Resolution may be delayed if races require runoffs or if independent members do not announce their caucusing intentions immediately, with a defined backstop of January 4 following the election. Resolution relies on official data from state electoral authorities and Congress alongside credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will hold precisely 55 seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections, including any special elections scheduled for November 2026. The resolution accounts for runoffs and vacant seats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds exactly 55 seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. This count includes all Senate elections, including special elections, scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a Senate seat is vacant but no election is held in November 2026, the seat is considered held by the party of the most recent incumbent. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or their expressed intent to caucus with a party at the time all 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the Republican Party holds any number of Senate seats other than 55. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have conclusively called all Senate elections. If a required runoff could change the outcome, the market remains open until that runoff is called. If these sources do not achieve consensus, the market resolves based on official certification.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Cutoff for included elections: — Only elections scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of this date are included.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.