Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
12.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$61.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how Senate seats are counted across regular elections, special elections, and uncontested seats. Explicit mechanics govern edge cases: runoffs are counted even if they take place later, party switches or vacancies after election day do not change how a seat is attributed, and vacant uncontested seats default to the party of the prior occupant. Independent senators count if they caucus or state intent to caucus with the party, with resolution potentially delayed until January 4 to await declarations. Resolution draws on official state election authorities and Congress alongside consensus media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will hold exactly 49 seats in the US Senate after the 2026 midterm elections, including any special elections held concurrently. The resolution accounts for all Senate seats, even those vacant if no election is held.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds exactly 49 seats in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This includes all Senate elections, including special elections, scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a Senate seat is vacant but no corresponding election is held in November 2026, the seat is considered held by the party of the most recent incumbent. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called. Candidates without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties are assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the Republican Party holds any number of Senate seats other than 49. The market resolves once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have conclusively called all Senate elections. If these three sources do not achieve consensus, the market will resolve based on the official certification.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections:
- Cutoff for scheduled elections: — All Senate elections scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of this date will be included.
Resolution source
the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
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