Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
6.45¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.45%
$613.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear, mechanical definitions for calculating the final seat total. They explicitly address edge cases such as runoff elections, vacancies without scheduled elections, post-election party switches, and how independent senators who caucus with the party are tallied. Positions may remain open past election night if runoff elections are required or if newly elected independents have not announced their caucus intentions by election day, with a hard cutoff date of January 4. Resolution relies on official election authorities, congressional records, and reporting consensus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will hold exactly 52 seats in the United States Senate following the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds exactly 52 Senate seats based on the results of the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if the seat count is any number other than 52. The count includes regular and special elections scheduled for November 2026 (as of October 31, 2026) for the 120th Congress, including runoffs, plus uncontested seats based on affiliation on election day. Independents who caucus or announce intent to caucus with Republicans are included. Unfilled vacancies with no election scheduled default to the previous holder's party. Official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting decide resolution.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — Scheduled date for the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- Independent caucus decision deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for newly elected independents to announce caucus intent before being excluded from party counts.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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