Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

This event tracks the first-round margin of victory in the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. Markets measure which candidate will win and within what percentage-point margin bracket over the second-place finisher.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive margin brackets categorized by winning candidate. Based on the rules defining margin of victory between the top two candidates, at most one candidate and margin bracket can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the specified candidate finishes first in the first round and their margin of victory over the second-place candidate falls within the defined percentage bracket. Margin of victory is the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates. If the value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If candidates tie for first place, tiebreaking rules assign resolution based on alphabetical order or listed status. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other. Resolution is determined by official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Oct 25, 2026 — Expected date for the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election.
• Definitive result deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия), or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 19 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC