Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
Current price
1.2¢
Implied probability 1.2%
$2.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves using official vote tallies from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria to calculate the margin of victory between the top two candidates based on valid votes. The arithmetic rules are well defined, with specific tie-breaking procedures referencing alphabetical order of last names and bracket boundary rules. Recounts are explicitly accounted for by keeping the market open until official certification, alongside a long backstop deadline extending into mid-2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andrey Gyurov finishes in first place in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election with a margin of victory of less than 10% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andrey Gyurov places first in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election with a margin of victory over the second-place candidate of less than 10% of total valid votes. The market resolves to No if Andrey Gyurov does not win the first round or if his margin of victory is 10% or greater. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if there is a tie for first place between two or more unlisted candidates. Resolution is decided using official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If a recount occurs before results are official, resolution waits until the recount finishes.
Key dates
- Expected first round election date: — The first round is expected to be held on this date.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия)
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