Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Current price
1.05¢
Implied probability 1.05%
$5.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution is based on the official first-round margin between the top two candidates, calculated using valid votes published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria. Resolution waits for official results or recount completions up until June 30, 2027. Holders should be aware of specific procedural clauses: exact boundary values round up to the higher bracket, and in the event of a tie for first place, alphabetical tie-breakers assign the win to the lowest margin bracket rather than canceling the market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andrey Gyurov will win the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by a margin of victory between 10% and 20% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andrey Gyurov finishes in first place in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election with a margin of victory between 10% and 20% over the second-place finisher, based on valid votes. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if Andrey Gyurov does not win or if his victory margin falls outside the 10%-20% bracket. The market resolves to Other if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if there is a tie for first place between two or more unlisted candidates. The Central Election Commission of Bulgaria decides the outcome via official vote counts, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Key dates
- Expected first round election date: — The date the first round of the election is expected to take place.
- Definitive result cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitive by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия)
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