Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?
Last captured price
0.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$3.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a clear mathematical formula for calculating the margin of victory based on valid votes, but they include bracket-and-tiebreak language designed for multi-option markets that could create confusion in a binary question. The definition of margin is specifically the gap between the first-place and second-place finishers, meaning the named candidate must place first and lead the second-place candidate by at least 30 percentage points of all valid votes. Official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria are designated as the primary authority, though the rules allow falling back on a consensus of credible reporting. There is a definitive resolution cutoff of June 30, 2027, resolving to Other if official counts remain unknown.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Andrey Gyurov wins the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election with a margin of victory of at least 30% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Andrey Gyurov finishes in first place in the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election with a margin of victory of at least 30% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference between their shares of all valid votes. It resolves to No if he does not win or if his margin of victory is below 30%. The market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if there is a tie for first place between two or more unlisted candidates. Ties involving listed candidates resolve to the lowest margin bracket according to specified alphabetical or listing rules. Official results published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria decide the outcome, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Expected date for the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия), or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
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