Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
Current price
9.1¢
Implied probability 9.1%
$6.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define how the margin of victory is calculated based on the absolute percentage difference of valid votes between the first- and second-place candidates. Resolution relies primarily on official figures certified by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria. Participants should take note of specific edge-case clauses: boundary values falling exactly between brackets resolve to the higher bracket, complex alphabetical tie-breaking rules apply if candidates tie for first place, and the market resolves to an 'Other' outcome if official certified results are not finalized by June 30, 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election as published by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iliana Iotova wins the first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by a margin of victory between 30% and 40% over the second-place candidate.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iliana Iotova finishes in first place in the first round with a margin of victory between 30% and 40% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference between their valid vote percentages. If a value falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if Iliana Iotova does not win within this margin bracket. The market resolves to Other if the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if two or more unlisted candidates tie for first place. Ties involving listed candidates resolve according to specific tie-breaker rules. Resolution is decided by official results from the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Expected first round election date: — Date the first round of the election is currently expected to be held.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия) or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
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