Weekly digest, 13 November 2026
Covers the 7 days to 13 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC. Prices and explanations are as they stood when the issue was built.
Biggest moves
The week's largest price moves on Polymarket, with the likely driver.
- Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?
▲ Up 84 points · Likely driver: Not enough evidence
The price rose sharply from 17% to 100%, but there is insufficient evidence available to identify a likely driver for the move.
AI-generated ·
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on November 15?
▼ Down 76 points · Likely driver: Coin price
The probability fell from 91% to 18% as Bitcoin dropped 0.69% during the move hour on Binance, leaving its price 3.45% below the $70,000 threshold and reducing the likelihood of finishing above that level.
AI-generated ·
- US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?
▼ Down 76 points · Likely driver: Related outcomes
The probability dropped from 84% to 3% as related market outcomes on the ceasefire timeline repriced together, with 3 related outcomes moving across the same period.
AI-generated ·
- Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
▼ Down 75 points · Likely driver: Not enough evidence
The probability fell sharply from 75% to 6%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
AI-generated ·
- Will Susie Wiles be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
▲ Up 74 points · Likely driver: Not enough evidence
The market price surged from 24% to 99%, but there is insufficient evidence to determine the likely driver of the move.
AI-generated ·
Rules worth reading
Markets closing in the next 7 days whose rules carry a High Gotcha risk.
Nothing qualified this week.
Resolved this week
How the most-traded markets resolved.
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Resolved: Yes
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Resolved: No
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Resolved: No
- Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
Resolved: No
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
Resolved: Yes