Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Current price
3.5¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.5%
$558.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the snapshot timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and includes an explicit timeout resolving to No if no token launches by December 31, 2026. However, the price source is not named in advance, relying instead on the decider identifying the most liquid price source available. Additionally, computing Fully Diluted Valuation depends on an agreed-upon total supply metric, which can vary across tracking platforms during the initial days of a new token launch.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Opensea's token exceeds $2 billion one day after its launch, with a specific definition for "1 day after launch" and a deadline for the token's release.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Opensea launches a publicly transferable and tradable token, and its Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) is greater than $2 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $2 billion at that time. The market also resolves No if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — If Opensea does not launch a token by this date, the market resolves No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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