Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Current price
7.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$2.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the evaluation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, alongside a definitive fallback resolving to No if no launch occurs by December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. Determining which market is the most liquid and confirming the exact total supply figure required to compute fully diluted valuation leaves room for decider interpretation if token metrics vary across venues or aggregators.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Opensea's token exceeds $1 billion one day after its launch. The market has a specific definition for '1 day after launch' and a deadline for the token launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Opensea's token is greater than $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $1 billion at that time. The market also resolves No if Opensea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline:
Resolution source
the most liquid price source available
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