Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Current price
No price snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies the exact resolution timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, as well as an explicit longstop expiration date of December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is defined vaguely as the most liquid price source available rather than designating a specific price oracle, aggregator, or exchange. This grants the decider latitude to determine which trading venue had the deepest liquidity at the target time. Additionally, calculating fully diluted valuation relies on total token supply metrics that can differ between data tracking platforms depending on how unminted, vested, or locked allocations are treated.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
No order-book snapshots have been captured for this market’s primary token.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether OpenSea launches a token that reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation above $100M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $100M at that time, or if OpenSea does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The valuation is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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