Will Anasse Kazib win the 2027 French presidential election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves clearly based on whether Anasse Kazib wins the next French presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves clearly based on whether Anasse Kazib wins the next French presidential election. The rules account for both regular timing in 2027 and any snap election held earlier, as well as the standard two-round electoral system. Resolution relies primarily on credible reporting consensus with a direct fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if needed. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves to 'Other' only if results remain unknown by that date, presenting minimal surprise to participants.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Market explained
This market measures whether Anasse Kazib wins the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it occurs on its scheduled April 2027 timeline or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Anasse Kazib wins the next French presidential election, including via an outright first-round victory or a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with French Government / Ministry of the Interior as fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·