Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
46.85¢
−1.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 46.85%
$4.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the next French presidential election, covering both the regular schedule and any early snap election, as well as the two-round voting system. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous. A timeout clause is included to resolve the market if final results are delayed past December 31, 2027, leaving little room for surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marine Le Pen will win the next French presidential election. It applies to the outcome regardless of whether the election follows the scheduled April 2027 timeline or is held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is expected around April 2027, though an earlier election is also covered.
- Result cutoff deadline: — Results must be known by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.