Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.65¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.65%
$3.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly align with the standard constitutional process for the French presidential election, accommodating both the scheduled 2027 date and any snap election held earlier. The outcome is determined by which candidate wins outright in the first round or prevails in the runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by the official tally from the French Ministry of the Interior if discrepancies arise. A generous deadline of December 31, 2027, prevents premature closure while leaving ample time for vote certification, though if the results remain uncertified past that cutoff, the market defaults to resolving as Other.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Éric Zemmour will win the next French presidential election, whether held on its scheduled timeline around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Éric Zemmour wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: The election is expected to be held around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results must be known by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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