Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
18.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as Édouard Philippe winning the next French presidential election, explicitly accommodating the standard two-round system and any snap election held ahead of schedule. While resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, it specifies an unambiguous official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior in case of dispute. A broad expiration deadline at the end of 2027 provides ample time for election completion and certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Édouard Philippe will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Édouard Philippe wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results reported by the French Government (Ministry of the Interior) if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: Expected around April 2027, though earlier elections also qualify.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results must be known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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