Will Marion Maréchal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$501.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies that it resolves based on the winner of the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule or early, including any runoff round. Outcome verification initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline is set for December 31, 2027, resolving to Other if no winner is determined by then. The criteria and official sources are well-defined, presenting minimal risk of an unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Marion Maréchal will win the next French presidential election, whether held around April 2027 as scheduled or earlier. It features a fallback resolution to "Other" if election results are not known by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Marion Maréchal wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution relies solely on official results reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is currently expected to be held around April 2027, but the market applies even if held earlier.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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