Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward terms tied directly to the winner of the next French presidential election, explicitly covering snap elections, regular schedules, and runoff rounds. Resolution primarily relies on broad consensus reporting, with an official government source—the French Ministry of the Interior—designated as the ultimate authority if results are contested or ambiguous. A definitive long-stop date at the end of 2027 resolves the market if election results are unexpectedly delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether François Baroin will win the next French presidential election, whether it occurs as expected around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Baroin wins the next French presidential election, including any potential second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The next election is expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Government (Ministry of the Interior)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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