Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$750.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as the specified candidate winning the next French presidential election, accommodating both the scheduled 2027 timeline and any early election, as well as a second-round runoff. Resolution relies on a consensus of reporting with a designated official authority, the French Ministry of the Interior, specified to resolve any ambiguity. A timeout clause allows ample time through the end of 2027 before resolving to an alternative outcome if results remain uncertified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yannick Jadot will win the next French presidential election, whether it is held around April 2027 as scheduled or earlier.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if Yannick Jadot wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or after a runoff. This market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. This market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or solely on official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election date: Expected around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the French Ministry of the Interior as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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