Will Lucie Castets win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$423.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes winning the French presidential election, explicitly accommodating both scheduled and early elections as well as potential runoff rounds. While resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, the market designates a definitive official authority—the French Ministry of the Interior—to resolve any ambiguity. Position holders should be aware of the long resolution timeline and the backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, which triggers a resolution to Other if results are not finalized by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Lucie Castets will win the next French presidential election, whether it takes place as scheduled in 2027 or earlier. If results remain unknown by the end of 2027, the market resolves to an alternate outcome.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Lucie Castets wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or following a runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: Expected around April 2027, but covers the election even if held earlier.
- Resolution deadline: — Results must be known by 11:59 PM ET, or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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