Will Karim Bouamrane win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the winner of the next French presidential election, explicitly covering both the standard schedule and any potential snap election held earlier, as well as runoff rounds. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible media reporting, backed up by an official government source (the French Ministry of the Interior) in case of any ambiguity. A long backstop date of December 31, 2027 provides ample time for election certification following the expected April 2027 vote.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Karim Bouamrane will win the next French presidential election, scheduled for 2027 or held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Karim Bouamrane wins the next French presidential election, whether in the first round or a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The next French presidential election is expected to be held around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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