Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.25%
$2.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves based on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, accounting for both regular and early snap elections as well as potential runoff rounds. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous. A clear backstop date at the end of 2027 provides a definitive timeout mechanism if certification is severely delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sébastien Lecornu will win the next French presidential election, whether it is held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sébastien Lecornu wins the next French presidential election, including through a runoff round if necessary. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the definitive source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected Election Window: The next French presidential election is expected around April 2027.
- Resolution Cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.