Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes winning the French presidential election, explicitly accommodating the two-round voting system and potential early elections. Outcome determination relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, backed by the French Ministry of the Interior as an official fallback in the event of ambiguity. A long backstop deadline of December 31, 2027, provides ample time for election completion and result certification.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Clémence Guetté will win the next French presidential election, whether held as scheduled or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Clémence Guetté wins the next French presidential election, securing victory either in the first round or a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior used if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The next election is expected to occur around April 2027.
- Result cutoff deadline: — If election results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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