Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on who wins the next French presidential election, accounting for both the first round and any necessary runoff, as well as an early election if one is called. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official backup from the French Ministry of the Interior if results are ambiguous. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2027 is provided if results are delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Juan Branco will win the next French presidential election, whether it takes place as scheduled in 2027 or is held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Juan Branco wins the next French presidential election, securing victory either outright in the first round or via the second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: Expected around April 2027, though the market applies to an earlier election as well.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Resolves to Other if election results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with French Government (Ministry of the Interior) official results as fallback
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