Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.85%
$2.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria clearly specify that the outcome depends on who wins the next French presidential election, explicitly covering both single-round victories and runoff scenarios, as well as early elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a named official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior in the event of ambiguity. A final resolution deadline of December 31, 2027 provides ample buffer for standard election certification timelines.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sarah Knafo will win the next French presidential election, whether held on its expected schedule around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sarah Knafo wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the runoff round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET for any reason. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with any ambiguity decided solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The next French presidential election is expected to occur around April 2027.
- Resolution deadline: — If election results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
French Ministry of the Interior and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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