Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$6.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines winning the French presidential election, explicitly covering both single-round victories and runoff scenarios, as well as the possibility of an early snap election before 2027. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit fallback to official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous. A backstop deadline is set for December 31, 2027, resolving to an alternate outcome if results are unexpectedly delayed. Overall, the rules align directly with standard electoral procedure and leave minimal room for interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mathilde Panot will win the next French presidential election, whether it is held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier. A notable condition is that the market resolves to Other if results are not known by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mathilde Panot wins the next French presidential election, including winning either outright in the first round or via a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, resolution is decided solely by official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The next election is expected around April 2027, though earlier elections are also covered.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results must be known by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
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