Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as Manuel Bompard winning the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier. It accounts for France's two-round voting system and includes any runoff. The resolution primary basis is a consensus of credible reporting, with a specific, named official backstop—the French Ministry of the Interior—if any dispute arises. There is a long buffer through December 31, 2027, to account for standard certification timelines.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Manuel Bompard will win the next French presidential election, whether held on its expected April 2027 schedule or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Manuel Bompard wins the next French presidential election, either outright in the first round with over 50% of the vote or in a runoff second round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The election is expected to occur around April 2027, but the market covers it even if held earlier.
- Result cutoff date: — If results are not known by 11:59 PM ET on this date, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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