Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the winner of the next French presidential election, covering both regular two-round voting and any snap election held ahead of schedule. Resolution relies on credible media reporting with an explicit fallback to the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior. A long stop date of December 31, 2027 gives ample buffer beyond the expected spring 2027 election dates, minimizing timing issues.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bernard Cazeneuve wins the next French presidential election, whether held on the expected April 2027 schedule or earlier. It includes a fallback resolution to Other if the outcome remains unknown by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Bernard Cazeneuve wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or following a runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election month: The election is expected to take place around April 2027.
- Resolution cutoff: — Results must be known by this time or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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