Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$4.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as the official victor of the next French presidential election, explicitly covering both scheduled timing and snap elections, as well as two-round runoff mechanics. Resolution is guided by a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to the official election results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined. The rules are clear, well-structured, and present minimal risk of an unexpected outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Carole Delga will win the next French presidential election, whether held on its expected schedule around April 2027 or earlier. It includes a fallback resolution to Other if results are not known by December 31, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Carole Delga wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning a second-round runoff. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is expected to be held around April 2027, though an earlier election also counts.
- Resolution deadline: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
French Ministry of the Interior or a consensus of credible reporting
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