Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines winning the next French presidential election, accounting for both a first-round victory and a runoff, as well as the possibility of a snap election held before 2027. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, backed up by the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. Participants should note that the rules include a fallback clause stating the market will resolve to 'Other' if results are delayed past December 31, 2027, which appears adapted from a multi-candidate market structure.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jean Castex will win the next French presidential election. The market applies to the next election regardless of whether it occurs on schedule around April 2027 or is held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jean Castex wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or following a runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The next election is expected around April 2027, but the market covers an earlier election if called.
- Resolution cutoff: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known by this deadline.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
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