Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves cleanly on whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, including an early election if called. The resolution rules account for France's two-round voting system and set an absolute cutoff date of December 31, 2027. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, but specifically designates the official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior as the deciding authority if any ambiguity arises.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Yaël Braun-Pivet will win the next French presidential election, whether it takes place as scheduled around April 2027 or is held earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Yaël Braun-Pivet wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the runoff round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results published by the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: The election is expected to be held around April 2027, though an earlier election also qualifies.
- Result determination cutoff: — Results must be known by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
French Ministry of the Interior and consensus of credible reporting
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