Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution terms for this election market are clear and align with standard French electoral procedures, explicitly covering both the two-round voting system and potential early snap elections. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, backed by a definitive official source in the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. The December 31, 2027 longstop date provides ample buffer beyond the scheduled spring 2027 vote. Position holders face straightforward mechanics directly tied to the declared winner of the next presidential election.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether François Bayrou will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier. The market resolves to Other if results remain unknown by the end of 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if François Bayrou wins the next French presidential election, either in the first round or a runoff round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Expected election window: The election is expected to take place around April 2027, though an earlier election also counts.
- Result determination deadline: — If election results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the French Ministry of the Interior as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
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