Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules clearly cover the election mechanics, explicitly accounting for a two-round voting system and any snap election held prior to 2027. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior designated as the deciding source if any ambiguity arises. A clear long-stop date of December 31, 2027, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined. Overall, the conditions align closely with standard expectations for an election outcome market.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Michel Barnier wins the next French presidential election, whether it takes place at the scheduled end of the current term or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Michel Barnier wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the runoff round. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the French Ministry of the Interior
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