Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$5M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution criteria are straightforward and directly track whether the named candidate wins the next French presidential election, including early elections or runoffs. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the French Ministry of the Interior in the event of ambiguity. A long backstop date of December 31, 2027 gives ample time for the contest to conclude and certify.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Clémentine Autain will win the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it occurs on its scheduled 2027 timeline or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Clémentine Autain wins the next French presidential election, including through a second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is a consensus of credible reporting, falling back solely to official results reported by the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The election is expected around April 2027, but the market applies even if held earlier.
- Resolution cutoff: — The market resolves to Other if results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the French Ministry of the Interior as the fallback in case of ambiguity
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