Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning condition as the candidate who officially wins the next French presidential election, accounting for both standard and snap election timing as well as the standard two-round runoff structure. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a concrete official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if any reporting ambiguity arises. A backstop date of December 31, 2027 handles extreme delays by resolving to Other, leaving little room for subjective interpretation or surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ségolène Royal will win the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule around April 2027 or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ségolène Royal wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% of the vote in the first round or by winning the second-round runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the official results reported by the French Government's Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election period: The election is expected to be held around April 2027, though earlier elections also qualify.
- Resolution deadline: — If election results are not known by this time, the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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