Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Current price
0.55¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$2.6M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves cleanly on whether Dominique de Villepin wins the next French presidential election, whether held on schedule in 2027 or earlier. The rules explicitly account for France's two-round voting system. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to the French Ministry of the Interior if any ambiguity arises. A backstop deadline of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to Other if results are unexpectedly delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Dominique de Villepin will win the next French presidential election, whether it takes place at the scheduled end of the current term or earlier.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Dominique de Villepin wins the next French presidential election, either by securing over 50% in the first round or by winning the runoff. The market resolves to No if another candidate wins the election. The market resolves to Other if election results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the French Ministry of the Interior if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Expected election timing: Expected around April 2027, but applies to the next election even if held earlier.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if election results are not known by this time.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the French Ministry of the Interior
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.